Pure Self Interest: For Once It Makes Me Happy

Forget the polls. If you really want to know who’s going to win the next Presidential election, just follow the business dollars.

Back in 1992, when it was becoming clear that Bill Clinton was about to become President, and our bicameral legislature was controlled by Democrats, the business lobby was tripping over itself to throw money at them. Admittedly, the percentages of the top 68 corporate donors were fairly even – 51% to Democrats, 49% to the GOP – but let’s face it, given the overwhelming majority of dollars that come with union support, the Democrats will never entirely break into big business.

But look at what happened next. That’s what is so telling. In 1996, the year after the Republicans captured both the Senate and the House, the Democrats’ share of business dollars plummeted to from 51% to 35%. That’s an incredible turnaround over four years. In fact, over $65 million went to the Republicans that year, compared to $35 million to the Dems. And the trend continued as the Republican years wore (tediously) on.

They lost a couple of percentage points when it seemed that Al Gore might get in, but on the whole the large majority of dollars stayed in Republican hands. It’s clear that business was backing the winning elephant.

But suddenly there’s a wholesale change in the prevailing wind (and I’m not just talking the hot air that comes out of John McCain’s mouth) as we approach the 2008 election. Business is giving more money to the Democrats, for the first time in 15 years.

Look at health: in 2006 it was strongly for the Republicans (62% - 37%) but now that advantage has gone, and the Democrats lead by 54% to 47%. Even oil and gas has gone from 82% to 72% in favor of the Republicans, and if that isn’t a sign of things to come, I don’t know what is. In fact, so far they have a 56% - 44% lead in fundraising in the corporate world.

Add that to their strong union support and you have a massive discrepancy in cash-on-hand between the parties. Ideological causes and union support don’t waver much. They’re solidly blue. But business donations tell a clear story: a strong majority of industries now believe that the Democrats will win the White House as well as retain both the Senate and House.

Like I say, pure self-interest… but for once, I really don’t care. Go corporate America!