ThinkingLiberal

Pure Self Interest: For Once It Makes Me Happy

Forget the polls. If you really want to know who’s going to win the next Presidential election, just follow the business dollars.

Back in 1992, when it was becoming clear that Bill Clinton was about to become President, and our bicameral legislature was controlled by Democrats, the business lobby was tripping over itself to throw money at them. Admittedly, the percentages of the top 68 corporate donors were fairly even – 51% to Democrats, 49% to the GOP – but let’s face it, given the overwhelming majority of dollars that come with union support, the Democrats will never entirely break into big business.

But look at what happened next. That’s what is so telling. In 1996, the year after the Republicans captured both the Senate and the House, the Democrats’ share of business dollars plummeted to from 51% to 35%. That’s an incredible turnaround over four years. In fact, over $65 million went to the Republicans that year, compared to $35 million to the Dems. And the trend continued as the Republican years wore (tediously) on.

They lost a couple of percentage points when it seemed that Al Gore might get in, but on the whole the large majority of dollars stayed in Republican hands. It’s clear that business was backing the winning elephant.

But suddenly there’s a wholesale change in the prevailing wind (and I’m not just talking the hot air that comes out of John McCain’s mouth) as we approach the 2008 election. Business is giving more money to the Democrats, for the first time in 15 years.

Look at health: in 2006 it was strongly for the Republicans (62% - 37%) but now that advantage has gone, and the Democrats lead by 54% to 47%. Even oil and gas has gone from 82% to 72% in favor of the Republicans, and if that isn’t a sign of things to come, I don’t know what is. In fact, so far they have a 56% - 44% lead in fundraising in the corporate world.

Add that to their strong union support and you have a massive discrepancy in cash-on-hand between the parties. Ideological causes and union support don’t waver much. They’re solidly blue. But business donations tell a clear story: a strong majority of industries now believe that the Democrats will win the White House as well as retain both the Senate and House.

Like I say, pure self-interest… but for once, I really don’t care. Go corporate America!

27 Pieces Of Religious Flair, Please

The secular response to the Democrats’ new-found ability to wear their religion on their sleeves like flair on a waitress, is that it may be a smart tactic, it may be good politics, but by Jove (if you’ll excuse my own invocation) it’s irritating as all Hell (again, my apologies).

From Obama’s continued virtuous appearances in churches around the country to Clinton’s proclamations of unshakeable faith (and as Mother Jones suggests, collaborations with folks as diametrically opposed to most of her political positions as Brownback and Santorum), we are sick of it.

As I’ve mentioned before, the US Congress isn’t exactly secular in its composition (although Kent Conrad of North Dakota is a Unitarian, which is about as close to an agnostic as you’re likely to find). Democrats have long declared religious affiliations, but it has rarely been a platform issue for them.

But this new focus on God, Faith & Family is disappointing to the few percent of us in this country who don’t go in for miracles and myths. It simply proves to us that Bush has successfully moved the country so far to the right that the Democrats’ only chance of success is to swing away from their traditional “religion is a personal matter” mantra to God-bothering displays of piety and prayer.

In other words, it seems that our only hope is to take on the Republicans on their own ground.

As I say, this is disappointing because it takes the focus off the real issues, just as the Republicans successfully managed with their God, Guns and Gays platform over the last few years.

Immigration? A religious issue? Clinton described Republican efforts to further criminalize illegal immigration as somehow ostracizing Jesus, while Obama sounded worryingly like Bush, supposedly the Democratic nemesis, with his declaration that “my faith teaches me that I can sit in church and pray all I want, but I won’t be fulfilling God’s will unless I go out and do the Lord’s work.”

A huge dividing line for we atheists (and there are just about enough of us to make a real difference in the election) has traditionally been the dizzying displays of religious fervor of the Republicans on the one side, and the almost reticent attitude of Democrats to discuss their faith on the other.

With this line blurring, and likely to become much more unclear as the election proceeds, have the Democrats won enough religious folks over to counter the inevitable loss of some atheist voters?

Probably. But it doesn’t make me much more optimistic about the decisions that zealots in the White House will make in the future.