Help Us, Obama-One Kenobi... You're Our Only Hope

A USA-Today / Gallup poll published a couple of days back sees Hillary Clinton rapidly increasing her lead among Democrats. The poll shows her at 48% compared to Obama’s 26%. This is a huge disparity, and questions are beginning to be asked about whether Barack can really win the Democratic nomination.

The trouble is – he has to. Looking further into the poll results we see that Giuliani is ahead of any Republican contender by 12%. Big deal for the Democrats – well, yes.

Asked to express a favorable/unfavorable opinion of Clinton, 48% of respondents were favorable, 49% unfavorable. Only 3% had no opinion. This is a staggering statistic, if only because it shows just how little wiggle room she has with the undecided voter. She has often been talked about as a polarizing candidate, and this clearly and unequivocally demonstrates that this is so. Compare this to Giuliani – 55% of the population have a positive opinion, just 32% unfavorable. In addition, 6% had no opinion and another 7% had never heard of him. (The number of people who hadn’t heard of Clinton seems to have been small enough to be statistically irrelevant.)

That leaves him with the possibility of a 13% boost to his campaign. Obama has just tanked somewhat after his controversial foreign policy speech, but he had previously been trending at a positive rating in the low fifties, and a negative opinion in the mid twenties. Potential swing votes were at 25% before his speech, giving him by far the most opportunity to woo new voters.

The conclusions I draw from this poll are reflective of the general feeling among Democrats of my acquaintance. Hillary can’t go any further – she’s peaked already. With hardly any additional votes to win, and the depth of dislike among voters of both parties, the only way for her to go is down.

Obama, on the other hand, has the least baggage of any Democrat. And that’s why we need him. A Washington insider isn’t going to win this race. (Despite my admiration for John Edwards, he doesn’t currently seem to have a snowball’s chance in hell.)

That’s going to be the defining characteristic of this campaign: fresh blood. Giuliani comes in on the back of some careful leadership and few outspoken views. He’s outside the beltway in more ways than one – he doesn’t seem too tangled in party affairs and has little contact with the scandals that have beset the Republicans. Obama has the same going for him (assuming he keeps quiet on politically sensitive topics such as amiable chats with Iran). Clinton does not.

If we don’t nominate Edwards or Obama, we can consider the race for the White House to be won at a trot by a Republican.