Homeownership - Now A Liberal Issue?

The Bush administration is a big fan of self-regulation. Oil companies? Let market forces dictate their profits! Utilities? Let market forces curb their pollution! Credit card predators? Let... well, you get the picture.

But by allowing mortgage companies and brokers free rein to cash in on the erstwhile housing boom, and by failing to anticipate that all would not be roses and petals forever, the Republicans may have made a fatal mistake.

Consider: RealtyTrac advises that 3.33% of all Colorado households, 54,747 in total, were in some stage of the foreclosure process during 2006. One family in every thirty-three, unable to pay their mortgage and about to lose their home. (If you live in Colorado, there's probably someone on your street who could use a plate of cookies right about now.)

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 2.15 million Coloradans voted in the 2004 Presidential Election. 1,101,255 of those people voted for G.W.Bush, while 1,001,732 voted for John Kerry.

Traditionally home ownership is a strong indicator of whether an individual will vote or not. In 2004, once again according to the U.S. Census Bureau, 67.7% of homeowners voted, vs. 48.3% of renters.

Now, apply the political test: Howard R. Ernst of the University of Virginia wrote a fascinating report on Home Ownership and political affiliation (http://centerforpolitics.org/downloads/pub_housing_3.pdf) which clearly demonstrates that 88% of US voters who vote Republican own their own homes, compared to just 76% of Democrats. Furthermore, only 17% of homeowners describe themselves as 'liberal' compared to 42% who describe themselves as 'conservative'.

'Self-regulation' of the mortgage industry has led to record foreclosure levels; homeowners tend to vote Republican; so what happens to voting in Colorado now that its people are losing their homes?

(Warning: assumptions ahead.)

Suppose there are 1.5 voters in each foreclosure, a reasonably well-educated guess. That's 82,120 voters, with a 67.7% likelihood of voting. Now suppose that 65% of them voted Republican in the last presidential election – but that their combined anguish and newly-found status as renters reverses that trend in 2008. That would be a swing of nearly 17,000 votes from 36,136 Republican votes to just 19,458, which, while not enough on its own to have given Kerry victory, would nevertheless have narrowed the margin of victory to just 80,000 votes or so. And of course, it doesn't take into effect the people who simply watch in horror while their neighbors are forced to pack up and leave.

Now apply that rule to some of the tighter and more populous states, like Ohio, where foreclosures are also high. Suddenly you're seeing swings that could give the Democrat the edge.

Foreclosure is a liberal issue now, because it is taking votes away from the Republicans and reapportioning them to the Democrats. Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama need to look seriously at how this issue can affect their campaigns, and at how best to illustrate to angry and disillusioned voters that the Republicans' failed policies of self-regulation have led to this sad state of affairs.