Why Do Republicans Divorce More Often Than Democrats?

Republicans are the party of family values.

They’re the party that protects the sanctity of marriage. Their morality is stronger than their opposition.

So say the Republicans. But the statistics say differently.

Of the top 15 states for divorce rates in 2005, all 15 voted for Bush in 2004. All fifteen.

Of the 12 lowest states for divorce rates, 10 voted for Kerry.

Massachusetts, where gay marriage is allowed (and where, according to Republicans, civilization would fall apart), has the lowest divorce rate in the country.

This cannot be a coincidence. So what are the reasons behind the fact that Republicans are significantly more likely to divorce than Democrats? And why do the former claim the high ground on marriage, when it is patently clear that their marriages don’t last as long as their political opponents?

Well, Republicans will answer that married couples are more likely to vote for them – and they’re right about that. Republicans control 49 of the 50 [congressional] districts with the highest rates of married people, while Democrats represent all 50 districts that have the highest rates of adults who have never married.

But that doesn’t explain the RATE of divorce, only the actual numbers. Why is it that in Massachusetts the rate of divorce is a third of the Arkansas figure?

I’m no sociologist, so the following is pure speculation. But… what if Republicans are simple greedier? In their economic policies, they tend to favor their own wealth over any kind of taxation that benefits society. In their foreign policy, they prefer protectionism and unilateralism. In their social policy, they cut education and welfare and pass the savings on to big business.

Is it so far-fetched to think that the reason that Republicans divorce more often, is that they’re more selfish – that they’re not generous partners, that they have more affairs that lead to divorce, that they abandon their spouses for younger models?

Other theories gladly entertained…

In case you want to check the statistics for yourself, along with other demographic data, please download the Excel file below. By default it is sorted by divorce rate (scroll all the way to the right), with a few unavailable states at the top. But you can also sort it by education, per capita income, obesity rate, property crime etc. Go to 'Data' at the top, then 'Sort By' and choose a category. Interesting to note that the top 19 states for obesity are also all Republican!

If you use this data, please do link back to this blog. Thanks!

Download 2004_election_demographics_v2.xls

Comments

[joel margolis]

You conveniently omit the fact that Democrats do best in states where people are least likely to marry
This would inciate, using your logic, e that Democrats are the greedy party since marriage implies the willingness to share

[Ryan]

Joel:

Marriage means you make more money. Not that you're willing to share. I know many couples that do not share bank accounts. They keep everything separate, and just split the bills, leaving more money for them to spend individually.

Your logic is flawed. Go take a logic class or something.

[pj]

I think there are a lot of reasons why the red states, particularly the southern states, have divorce problems:

1) They get married very young. I haven't looked it up, but I'd guess age of marriage in MA is much lower than AR.

2) They have such a screwed up approach to sex. Living together unamarried is taboo. Premarital sex is taboo, so "good girls" have to marry to enjoy sex and don't shop around for the right guy.

3) Male/female relationships are so unequal. It's hard to have a good partnership.

4) The northeast is very catholic, and catholics are less prone to divorce.

[J Lee]

Joel M: You must have a reading disability. From the article: "...while Democrats represent all 50 districts that have the highest rates of adults who have never married."

[lani]

joel is right. rate is calculated per 1,000 (or another arbitrary number) people. the more people married, the more people there are available to get divorced. simple really.

[Auros]

I have a proposal for explaining both the fact that the GOP controls the places with the highest married/population ratio, AND the fact that the Dems control with the lowest divorces/married ratio:

Dems marry later.

That is, Dems invest more in establishing a career and a base of stability, before getting married and having kids. Younger Dems are much more willing to explore relationships and figure out what they really want in life, before taking the permanent plunge. As a result, they end up in better, more successful marriages.

The flip side of this is that many Republican marriages are by young people who really have no clue what they're getting into. They're undereducated and underemployed. If they have a sexual relationship that results in pregnancy (which is more likely, since they're taught to ignore contraception), they're more likely to get married or end up as single parents, rather than regretfully having an abortion and postponing childbearing til they can really afford it.

Josh Marshall has also provided numbers showing that Democratic states have lower domestic-violence numbers. Same logic applies to that.

Also: dammit, when I hit preview, I saw that PJ beat me to the punch!

[Auros]

Lani: the divorce rate is calculated with the number of marriages as the denominator, not the total population. The percent of the population that's married is not a factor in the divorce rate.

[drew patterson]

I think one of the reasons that the districts are so skewed in regards to marriage rates is that marriage correlate with other factors. Districts with lots of unmarried people are likely to be urban districts, with lots of young people, and lots of professionals. These places trend Democratic for those reasons, and correlates with higher rates of singlehood.

People living in suburban or rural areas are more likely to have settled down; they are older, whiter, better-off financially, etc. So areas that have mostly marriedp eople have a host of oher socioeconomic factors that explain why they vote Republican.

That's why i think it is better to ignore those--too many issues of correlation and causation, and look to see that divorce rates are higher in states that vote Republican. However, that doesn't necessarily mean anything; it might mean that people who are conservative and vote republican engage in the SAME relationships as people Democratic-voting areas, but because they have different cultural values they get married much more loosely and people in Democratic areas just co-habit more often, but also break off those relationships at the same rate.

To get an idea if Republicans are less faithful, what you'd have to do is see if the the difference between marriage rates and divorce rates are greater in Republican areas. If they are, and we assume people engage in relationships as often, it just means that turnover is being hidden in Democratic areas. If they aren't higher, then we can assume that Republicans are just really hypocritical.

[Joe]

Several reasons.

1.) As someone mentioned, median age of marriage is much, much lower in the south. Getting married young causes all sorts of problems that will lead to divorce.

2.) People are poorer in the south. Being poor causes stress, and stress causes divorce. A lack of an adequate safety net doesn't help matters much.

3.) Southern culture is much more "masculine" than the north. This is not a compliment. Machismo causes all sorts of behaviors (spousal abuse, cheating, misogynist attitudes generally) that are not particularly good for marriage.

4.) Higher military service rate in the south. Deployments and cruises cause divorce.

5.) Fundamentalist worldview. Because Christian fundamentalists believe that everything they do will be forgiven if they repent, they are much more likely to engage in social taboos like divorce.

[Doctor Science]

http://echidneofthesnakes.blogspot.com/2006_08_01_echidneofthesnakes_archive.html#115462596975059480
echnidne of the snakes has plausibly suggested that what's going on is projection:

it is the Christian right-wing marriages which are in trouble, but somehow the fault for that is put at the feet of the liberal culture, even when liberal marriages seem to fare better

Put it another way. People in states where people are more likely to divorce will be more insecure about their marriages, because to them, looking around, marriage looks less secure. Two consequences:

1) Insecurity makes people more conservative.

2) No-one likes to blame themselves for their problems, so they project : it's not that I'm bad at marriage! It's those people over there, attacking my marriage!

Echidne points out that one consequence of the clinging to conservatism & projection is that it reinforces behaviors that increase the problem.
http://doctorscience.blogspot.com/2006/03/mom-against-abstinence.html
Sexual ignorance leads to early, unhappy marriages, which leads to more divorce. Which then leads to more conservatism & projection.

Now, insecurity also can make people selfish -- but it's the insecurity that comes first.

[Brian Rostron]

What is the "divorce per 1000" per 1000 what? People, married people, married couples? I find it difficult to believe that a state such as Pennsylvania has only 2.5 divorces per 1000 married couples. Over a fifty-year period, that would produce an expected value of approximately 75 divorces per 1000 married couples.

[Brian Rostron]

Actually, 125 divorces per 1000 married couples, but that's still seems extremely low.

[ThinkingLiberal]

Brian - the rate is per 1000 population. Includes children, the elderly, married or unmarried. From the US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract, 2006. Link: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/vital_statistics/marriages_and_divorces/

[Grand Moff Texan]

Republicans will answer that married couples are more likely to vote for them – and they’re right about that. Republicans control 49 of the 50 [congressional] districts with the highest rates of married people, while Democrats represent all 50 districts that have the highest rates of adults who have never married.

Put the two together and the answer is that, when Democrats marry, they mean it.

It's merely an extention of that hole moral hypocrisy thing. The right has to bray about the values it doesn't have. The left doesn't live in Ozzy and Harriet land, but doesn't pretend to, either.
.

[Grand Moff Texan]

I would apologize for my typo, but it's so apropos I'll leave it as it is.

Also, I put the first para in italics, but it didn't take.
.

[Stats]

Correlation does not equal causality.

Divorce rates in states that voted Republican may be higher, but is it the Republicans or Democrats getting divorced? It might even be true that Republicans are getting divorced more, and are even greedy, but the data do not support your hypothesis.

[lara]

Members of the "reality-based community" have stronger marriages because they're more likely to go into it with their eyes open. Even Dr. Phil would agree that marriage is best entered upon by couples with realistic perceptions and realistic expecations.

I also agree with the marriage-age theory. Somewhat related to that, I'm sure attitudes about abortion affect divorce rates. Shotgun marriages are fragile things, as I can personally testify; my home was broken by the time I was a toddler. God bless family values.

And yes, I know I wouldn't exist if my parents had had the option of abortion -- but then again, whatever kids they might later have had, in happier situations and with more suitable partners, were denied the pleasure of existence by my birth.

[Right wing troll]

I tend to agree with the comments concerning the insecurity, projection, and moral hypocrisy of the social conservatives... but the statements about how wealthy people are selfish shows that you're just another bitter liberal that hates winners.

And so what if a guy dumps his wife for a younger model? If a girl lets herself get old and fat, why should a guy have to keep her around? If a guy quit working and decided to become homeless, I very much doubt wifey would stick around. It's capitalism baby. But liberals hate capitalism, too.

But it's a free country, so smoke 'em if you got 'em. Later comrades!

[Grand Moff Texan]

Divorce rates in states that voted Republican may be higher, but is it the Republicans or Democrats getting divorced?

Unlikely to be a minority of Democrats who are running around giving their red state a bad name, so I think that's reaching.

Combined with the fact that Evangelicals have the highest divorce rates in America of any religious group (including Atheists), and that Southern Baptists are second worse, I think your concerns are unwarranted. Furthermore, three generations of sociologists have tried to figure out why the South has a higher murder rate in small towns than the North does in large cities points to the same problem: whether it's moral or "law and order" rhetoric, chances are you're listening to someone brag about what they're not.

Hypocrisy is the culture.
.

[Grand Moff Texan]

But liberals hate capitalism, too.

As a social system? Yes, because it's been a disaster for over a hundred years.

Failures should be punished.
.

[Magenta]

I think a lot of the ideas here might have some validity, but I also have another thought.

I've seen more than one marriage that broke up, at least in part, because one of the couple decided to become very religious for whatever reason (kids, simple interest, personal tragedy.) It creates a lot of tension when a couple who shared a secular viewpoint on sex, drinking and the like suddenly finds itself in disagreement on acceptable behavior.

I imagine that, especially when people are marrying young in a region that is fairly steeped in religous practice, that situation happens fairly frequently.

[Red Moon Dog]

From my red state perspective in the West, the state government doesn't offer a lot of support to families. Also, the financial stresses are probably greater. That is to say that the correlations I'm aware of for domestic violence are poverty, family instability, and drug abuse. I would think the same would be true for marriages. If one is living paycheck-to-paycheck and can't find stable employment and has to move often in an effort to find a job or afford housing, that can't be good for the marriage. I'm not an economist or researcher, but that is my theory as to why we see this in red states: smaller/shakier social welfare net and the jobs don't pay as much or are less long term.

[Mark F.]

This is so silly, and the answer is so obvious: Democrats are superior people. See? Easy!

[shain]

This site deals with the agree with the divorce policies marriage-age theory. Somewhat related to that, I'm sure attitudes about abortion affect divorce rates and marriage is allowed (and where, according to Republicans,it has the lowest divorce rate in the country.

"http://www.divorcelawyers.com"

[iabhornc]

What all of you have said about the the slave (southern) states is so true on the topic of that significant other garbage. I mean, that significant other garbage is all they ever talk about. They will even discriminate against you just for not being married past a certain age. About the relationships with these SOUTHERN !@#$S, that is really something else. Below are some responses I agree big time with. Yeah, and when you tell it to some SOUTHERN !@#$ (who doesn't deserve to be a part of the US they will contradict you (they and their sorry behinds). The responses are as follows:

"People are poorer in the south. Being poor causes stress, and stress causes divorce. A lack of an adequate safety net doesn't help matters much."

-Very true. Then again, you have parts of the south that are very wealthy. Talk about "stress", people pride themselves on that down here (as well as being uppity, loud and very obnoxious. A lack of everything they have if you ask me. Too many rednecks who should all get drunk and shoot themselves. Oh, and people keeping guns in their glove compartments are about the only thing you hear about down here too. I hate southern !@#$s.

"Southern culture is much more "masculine" than the north. This is not a compliment. Machismo causes all sorts of behaviors (spousal abuse, cheating, misogynist attitudes generally) that are not particularly good for marriage"

-Yeah, they act all "macho" and shit when really they are chicken shit. Talk about all those "behaviors" you mentioned these SOUTHERN !@#$S talk about it constantly. A southern broad is the LAST species on the WHOLE PLANET I would consider being in a serious relationship with. Southern women are not only irritating to be around but also are irritating to listen to. They also seem to think just b/c they are the "better looking" that it makes them superior.

"No-one likes to blame themselves for their problems, so they project : it's not that I'm bad at marriage! It's those people over there, attacking my marriage!"

-Yeah, so these SOUTHERN !@#$S have to blame others and it is *never* "their fault" when it really was big time.

"Combined with the fact that Evangelicals have the highest divorce rates in America of any religious group (including Atheists), and that Southern Baptists are second worse, I think your concerns are unwarranted. Furthermore, three generations of sociologists have tried to figure out why the South has a higher murder rate in small towns than the North does in large cities points to the same problem: whether it's moral or "law and order" rhetoric, chances are you're listening to someone brag about what they're not.

Hypocrisy is the culture."

-Oh, gosh! Yes. That is an understatement about these SOUTHERN A*******. About the sorry slave states having the highest murder rates in the country that is so true. I live in North Carolina. You turn on the news and just about everyday there is a murder. The same thing goes with the newspaper. These miserable southern !@#$% seem to think they are above the law. How about Court TV? Most of those violent segments were/are shot in the south and the northwest. There was even a difference in watching the show "COPS" in Ohio vs. North Carolina (a state with SOUTHERN A******* I abhor). Down here, I'd say it is more violent than that one episode I saw in Ohio. It's almost as if they edit that show for different regions of the country. Try telling this to some southern !@#$. They will contradict you and say, "that's everywhere" when SEVERAL of them have never been out of the state. Go figure.

"Higher military service rate in the south. Deployments and cruises cause divorce"

-In the nauseating state of North Carolina that is so true. You have the city of Fayetteville (military hell). People down here live and breathe that insane military rhetoric (next to that sports garbage). Divorce... That word seems to rule down here.

"They have such a screwed up approach to sex. Living together unamarried is taboo. Premarital sex is taboo, so "good girls" have to marry to enjoy sex and don't shop around for the right guy."

-OH, MAN! YES! Their "privates" are ANOTHER thing they talk about constantly. That explains how when I tried to get to know this one girl (thinking she was single), she proceeded to talk about her "boyfriend" and was asking me "wanna !@#$". I was, like, NO. Yet these pathetic SOUTHERN A******* poked fun at me for wanting to be in a serious relationship. It's like to them that is wrong. Look who's talking. As for looking for the right person, these INCONSIDERATE SOUTHERN !@#$% "don't care". They never care. They can take their precious bible and shove it up their holy rectums. People (like my pops) down here have that "a pussy is a pussy" kind of attitude. These BLACK SOUTHERN SLAVES and SORRY MINORITIES (mainly the Hispanics) down here are the absolute WORST for talking about getting their genitals stimulated (and REDNECKS too). Like that is an accomplishment. They (southern !@@#$%^^) can go commit adultery (sp?) until they are so !@#$%^& angry they all shoot themselves. "Trigger happy" seems to be something they pride themselves in being too. I hate them (southerners).

"Male/female relationships are so unequal. It's hard to have a good partnership."

-Down here, that is an understatement too. Then, you have all these religious fanatics (who need to shut up) who insist, "we are all created equal". It would be lovely if I DIDN'T understand Spanish b/c the hispanic crowd is a little worse @ talking about it.

"I've seen more than one marriage that broke up, at least in part, because one of the couple decided to become very religious for whatever reason (kids, simple interest, personal tragedy.) It creates a lot of tension when a couple who shared a secular viewpoint on sex, drinking and the like suddenly finds itself in disagreement on acceptable behavior."

Oh, yes! And what is worse, is that these SOUTHERN !@@#$%^& expect you think like them. Why would I want to engage in all of this? And then the people who pride themselves in doing everything you said complain about their "marriage going downhill". Yeah, doing that IS going to ruin a marriage for you.

Oh well, there are no more responses but a lot more to say. In addition to all the things you all have said (political and non-political), there are some other things. They (southerners) take pride in being the state they are from. They (North Carolinians especially) think it is so !@#$%^& great. They also take pride in winning $1 in a lottery and they hang out @ the convenient store where they got the winning ticket and tell everybody. North Carolina got a lottery, when... Last year? And there where states which already had a lottery 20 years ago.

Gosh, these southerners really suck (not just b/c of their Strom Thurmond politics), but with everything they do in general. They think they are exceptionally well mannered when they are anything but. They think they are "soft-spoken" when they are LOUD AND OBNOXIOUS. They think they are hard workers when they are anything but... Yes, their work ethic is a bunch of bull****. A lot of the ones I've had to work with do nothing but complain. They perform the work poorly amongst all things. In addition to that, they act as if something that doesn't belong to them is their's. we should've just let those pathetic southerners seceed from the union. It's what they wanted (and still do). Instead we had to go to war.

I could easily go on and on, but I'll leave it here.